So the deflationists were right

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The Baltic Dry Index measures the cost of shipping by sea. All of a sudden, worldwide shipping has drastically slowed.

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The cost of commodities like copper have fallen rapidly.

It has been clear for two years that an economic calamity lay ahead. What was not clear, though, was whether the bust would be accompanied by inflation or deflation. It’s now clear that, at least in the near term, the deflationists were right. People and businesses have stopped buying things, so prices are falling. Even the prices of many foods are falling. Credit has frozen, so this makes it even clearer just how much stuff was being bought with borrowed money.

Given the vast amount of government borrowing and “stimulus” that will be required to get the economy going again, it seems all too likely that, longer term, inflation will return. But for now, deflation is a fine stroke of luck. Now’s the time for people to think about what they need to get through the hard times ahead and stock up.

I’m even going to price copper gutters today. A few months ago, copper gutters would have been completely out of the question.

Cat portraits

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Lily in the morning light — James-Michael Gregg

A friend was visiting from California a couple of weeks ago, and he took hundreds of photos of Lily with his iPhone. Two photos, in particular, caught light and color in a wonderful way. I used Gimp to apply an “oilify” effect.

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Lily in the morning shadow

Where late the sweet birds sang

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Early fall has very quickly become middle fall. Though these pear trees up the road still have most of their leaves, the leaves on the trees in the woods are turning brown and falling. Summer’s lease hath all too short a date.

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A bare, ruin’d choir of woods below my house

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A briar berry

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A dried weed

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That time of year thou mayst behold thriving turnips and mustard.

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Something black and wicked tiptoes through the turnips. A Lily cat?

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My house seen from the woods

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My front door. I now have a shiny new doorkey to jingle in my pocket.

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These two shots of the house show some of the angles that made the house so tricky to build.

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The winter wind will whistle around these corners in a very gothic sort of way.

Sonnet 73

That time of year thou mayst in me behold
When yellow leaves, or none, or few, do hang
Upon those boughs which shake against the cold,
Bare ruin’d choirs, where late the sweet birds sang.
In me thou seest the twilight of such day
As after sunset fadeth in the west,
Which by and by black night doth take away,
Death’s second self, that seals up all in rest.
In me thou see’st the glowing of such fire
That on the ashes of his youth doth lie,
As the death-bed whereon it must expire
Consumed with that which it was nourish’d by.
This thou perceivest, which makes thy love more strong,
To love that well which thou must leave ere long.

— William Shakespeare

Guns?

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Some of my friends back in San Francisco might be surprised to know that I’ve bought a couple of guns since I moved to North Carolina. But I haven’t the slightest guilt about it. Being able to competently use a firearm is a great skill. Though I was a pretty good shot when I was a boy, I had not shot guns for years. I’m pretty much teaching myself, with some advice from friends. I believe a reasonable standard for pistols is being able to hit a 10-inch target at 25 yards. I need more practice; I can achieve only about 60 percent. This is a Ruger Mark III semi-automatic, .22 caliber. The magazine holds 10 rounds. Some people don’t consider .22 caliber pistols to be serious weapons. But the ammunition is affordable, so they’re great for target practice. And when loaded with hollow-point high-velocity long rifle cartridges, I don’t think you’d want to be hit by one.

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My part-time neighbor at the end of the road comes to his cabin to hunt. He has a very nice shooting range down in the little valley below his cabin. That’s where I go to practice shooting.

Those of you who’ll be coming to visit from San Francisco after the house is done: You know you want to go down to the shooting range and fire away, don’t you?

Carolina blue

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Though the North Carolina elections board won’t release the final count until later this month, the Associated Press has called it — North Carolina is now a blue state.

As though to prove that this is a real phenomenon, yesterday Delta Airlines announced that it plans to start nonstop service from Raleigh-Durham to Paris. Last week, US Airways announced that it’s planning to start nonstop service from Charlotte to Paris.

This is not really something new. It’s a return to the norm. Lyndon Johnson, it is reported, said, “We have just lost the South for a generation” after he signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

It feels good to be connected to the coasts again, and to the world.

Wednesday: Sauerkraut-making day

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After Monday’s cabbage-buying expedition to the Virginia mountains, Wednesday was sauerkraut-making day. To make sauerkraut, you need:

1. Cabbage. I bought cabbage in 50-pound sacks close to the farm in Carroll County, Virginia.

2. Sea salt. I used refined sea salt bought in bulk at Whole Foods. I would have preferred to use a really premium salt like Celtic sea salt. Any good salt will work, though, as long as it’s not iodized.

3. Something to slice the cabbage with. We used a wooden box slicer made in Eastern Europe that I bought at an on-line store. This slicer is pretty efficient, and it slices the cabbage nice and uniformly thin, which is essential for good sauerkraut.

4. A crock to ferment the sauerkraut in. I used Harsch No. 15 crocks. These crocks are made in Germany especially for fermenting vegetables. They’re not cheap.

5. A friend to help with all the work. A friend from California is visiting this week. We made 30 pounds of sauerkraut in about 3.5 hours. Hard work, but not that bad.

About kraut recipes and the amount of salt: The U.S. Department of Agriculture recommends way too much salt in homemade sauerkraut. According to the article about sauerkraut at Wikipedia, this is because, if the fermentation temperature is too high, the wrong kind of bacteria will grow. Most sauerkraut recipes on the web call for 6 tablespoons of salt for 10 pounds of cabbage. The recipe that comes with the Harsch crocks calls for 5 to 8 grams of salt for 1 kilogram of cabbage, far less than the USDA number. After much deliberation, I decided to use 2.5 tablespoons of salt for 10 pounds of cabbage, in the range recommended by Harsch. I believe this is a ratio of about .008, in the low end of the acceptable ratios given by Wikipedia — .006 to .020. If you use a larger amount of salt in the sauerkraut, the kraut is too salty to eat and must be washed before eating. That washes away the nutrients — bad idea.

Why canned sauerkraut isn’t as good for you: There are some good brands of sauerkraut on the market in glass jars. But if you put the sauerkraut in jars, you have to heat it, killing off the beneficial bacteria and enzymes. To get the full health benefits of sauerkraut, it must be eaten from the crock, unheated and unwashed. In other words, you have to make your own sauerkraut.

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Washing the cabbage

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Some of the sauerkraut-making apparatus

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Slicing the cabbage

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The crock filled with salted cabbage

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The cabbage with the weights on top. These weights come with the Harsch crocks. They hold the cabbage down so that it stays covered with brine.

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The crocks all filled and ready to start fermenting. These crocks are in the cellar of my new house.

Monday: Cabbage-buying expedition

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Wednesday was to be sauerkraut-making day, so Monday’s chore was to go to the mountains and get the cabbage. In Carroll County and Patrick County, Virginia, cabbage is a major crop. That’s about 45 miles from my place in Stokes County, N.C. This time of year the quality of the cabbage is high, and the price is low. At farmside stands, it was selling for $8 for a 50-pound sack. At roadside produce stands, it was selling for $10 for a 50-pound sack. I bought two sacks of cabbage.

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The trip to cabbage country goes right past Mabry Mill on the Blue Ridge Parkway.

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The water trace

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An old wagon, part of the Mabry Mill museum of old mountain technology

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A small whiskey still, also part of Mabry Mill’s museum

All four sides, in the morning light

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Well, y’all, here are the final exterior shots, the morning after completion. The crew have removed all their equipment, and the litter piles have been cleaned up. The house is now surrounded by a band of packed red dirt. Next steps: the final grading and starting on the up-close landscaping. With luck I’ll at least have a bit of grass and some daffodils around the house come spring. This construction project was incredibly smooth. I fretted more than necessary about the formalities of inspections, and the mud and the mess, but I don’t think I ever lost a minute’s sleep during the whole project. The contractors and their crew did an outstanding job. If anyone in this area is looking for a contractor, please email me and I’ll put you in touch with them. I’d recommend them very highly.

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Because of tricks of the surrounding terrain, the house can pretend to be lost in the woods, though it’s really not. The house faces what I’d call a dell, with a high ridge on the horizon about a quarter of a mile away. To use an old-fashioned technical term, I believe this place is a croft. In these photos, the sun has just cleared the southeastern ridge, and the first morning light is falling on the house (about 8:15 a.m. this time of year). Unfortunately my camera is too automatic to take a night shot. I’d never get the exposure right. But the house, seen at night from up close, with the stars behind it, has a completely different mood. It looms tall and mysterious and ominous, and it looks like a set for a scary movie for teen-agers.

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The back and the uphill side.

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The back and the downhill side. This photo was taken yesterday evening when the sun was low in the west.