Source: Wikimedia Commons
As Karis Nemick in the television series Andor reminded us, authoritarianism is always brittle. Though Trump is surrounded by some of the most eager and rabid — but also the most incompetent, the most deranged, and the most corrupt — lackeys in American history, the future of authoritarianism in America is tied to the fate of one and only one person — Donald Trump. Authoritarianism in America has a single point of failure.
Trump is 78 years old. For his last year or so in office he will be a lame duck. In 42 months he will be gone (if he doesn’t die first from too many cheeseburgers and milkshakes).
There will be (there already is, actually) a fierce competition to become the next Trump and to keep the movement going. J.D. Vance, of course, wants to be the new Trump. I’m skeptical that Vance has got what that would take. Trump, it seems to me, wants a dynasty, not a functional movement. Don Jr. would like to be the next Trump, and it’s hard to imagine Trump supporting anyone else. I’m also skeptical that Junior has what it would take.
One of the things we learned from this week’s grotesque warfare between Trump and Elon Musk is how much Trump is hated by elites. Only Musk, at this point, has the power to turn on Trump. But, inevitably, that’s going to change. In three years or so, Trump’s power is going to be gone. Either his term will end, he will die in office, he will be assassinated, or unexpected and unpredictable events will somehow bring him down. Either MAGA creates and anoints another charismatic leader, or MAGA fragments from schism and goes into decline.
Whatever happens, once Trump is perceived as weak and vulnerable, an ugly tide will turn against him. A thousand savage wolves will come for Trump, both to hasten him off the stage and to extract revenge. Trump will be torn to pieces unless a MAGA successor loyal to Trump can be found. Historically, the picture is rarely pretty when authoritarians leave office or lose their power.
A great weakness of the Trump regime is that it is dangerously deficient in cold, pragmatic competence. The Nazis, without their cold, pragmatic competence, would never have gotten as far as they did. The Trump regime, on the other hand, is a pig circus of incompetent narcissists trying to generate video for Fox News. Without the pig circus that feeds the media, there’d not be much left of the Trump regime — not much that could get anything done, anyway.
Here I must add that my predictions about Trump have always been too optimistic. I just could not imagine that he could outlast all the many things that should have destroyed him politically and put him in prison. And even though I have a low, low opinion of at least half of the American population, my opinion was not low enough.
As the commentariat have pointed out, in the Trump-Musk pig circus we are seeing a struggle between MAGA, which wants to control us and dominate us, and the tech oligarchs, who want to own us, control us, and dominate us. Working together, their power is horrifying. But they have shown that their alliance is brittle. We must hope that they continue to try to dominate each other rather than work together.
David do you see the need for constitutional reform in a post-Trump era ? Say reductions on executive power or even a move towards a more parliamentary system, where its easier to remove failing prime ministers. There may be of course also be disadvantages to such a model, and perhaps the problem is less the constitutional system but those who seek to undermine it.
Hi Chenda: Yes … the U.S. is badly in need of constitutional reform. The problem is that there are so many people who want to reform the constitution to weaken civil rights (at least for the people they don’t like) and turn the U.S. into a “Christian” nation. I don’t have much hope that I will see in my lifetime any meaningful constitutional reform that will strengthen democracy. I would vastly prefer a parliamentary system. Most Americans, though, don’t have a clue what the differences and advantages are. As far as I know, there is no movement in the U.S. advocating a parliamentary system. The American population is far too clueless to even have a meaningful conversation about it.