Trump speaking at a Women’s History Month event. Source: the White House.
It’s remarkable — and exceedingly scary — how what we’re now reading about the world economy is so similar to what happened during the Covid pandemic. A virus caused the pandemic and the inflation that followed. Trump and his pack of righteous simpletons did it this time.
Apparently they thought that bombing Iran would be a quick and easy win — wham bam, kill the ayatollah, install a puppet, drown out Epstein, make fools of those who are unmanly and timid, and fill the airwaves with footage of smoke over Tehran and Republicans doing victory laps.
Instead:
• Oil and gas prices have jumped.
• It’s planting season, and farmers have to deal with fertilizer shortages, fertilizer prices, and higher costs of diesel fuel.
• Iran’s promise to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed is driving up the cost not just of oil, but of everything that is shipped by sea. As the New York Times writes this morning: “Beyond its effects on oil and gas, the unfolding war in the Middle East is roiling shipping and airfreight, threatening the availability of a vast range of goods.”
• Manufacturers, from electronics to textiles, are not getting the materials they need. We’re nowhere near Covid-level disruptions, but the longer the Middle East is in turmoil, the worse the situation will become.
• If the turmoil continues, grocery prices will start to go up. Grains and oils and everything that contains them will increasingly become a problem. Fresh produce shipped by air is already becoming a problem, as producers watch things rot and buyers either do without or pay more.
• We’re being reminded that we’re just as globalized as we were during Covid. Just-in-time supply chains are just as brittle. Manufacturers will have to deal with not only with missing inputs but with falling demand.
• Trump wanted interest rate cuts. Instead he’s got more inflation pressure, more uncertainty, and less room for the Fed to cut.
• The stock market is nervous and is looking awfully toppy.
• The longer this keeps up, the more people will panic over gas and grocery prices.
• The best estimate is that about 2,000 people have been killed so far, including American soldiers and 160 people in an Iranian children’s school. In Lebanon, more than 800,000 people have been evacuated because of the bombing and are now refugees.
The MAGA warriors thought that their little excursion would look good on television, win them votes, and improve their ratings. Instead it is starting to look like Covid with drones and missiles and no Biden to blame. They’ve had their cakewalk. Now they have to eat it.
Note: ChatGPT 5.4 helped with the research for this post.